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Yerlik Karazhan, Ph.D., International Sustainability Expert

 

January 2022 events in Kazakhstan prompted us to take a broader look at things to the extent of getting philosophical. The years of stability, the 30th anniversary of Kazakhstan’s independence, the declared economic liberalisation, and a seemingly fair game we played on international markets promised prosperity and economic well-being to the country, endowed with significant natural resources.

 

Kazakhstan’s competitive advantage was in its flexible and efficient human capital, and with the development of technology, came quick communications and access to foreign markets. For many post-Soviet countries, these factors were to become the foundation for economic recovery in the 90s, and a major breakthrough in the 21st century. But something went wrong. Somewhere and at some point, we lost momentum and took an unfavorable direction. There was a watershed causing massive social discontent followed by economic and human losses in that short week of January earlier this year.

 

I will allow myself to leave out the discussion of political aspects, but I will put forward a hypothesis, that one of the key factors of the crisis was weak system analysis and a failure to notice non-conventional risks or the so-called sustainability risks. Now, let me be consistent in my explanations. 

 

 

Preamble: Climate and a Man

 

In the 60s, a number of global non-political actors joined in an effort to study the long-term perspectives of the planet Earth, and the effects of human activity. After analysing the works of historical philosophers and economic theoreticians, as well as contemporary scientific achievements to date, a think-tank called The Club of Rome was created. In three years, the Club produced its first report called “The Limits to Growth”. 

 

The report presented twelve development scenarios of human population growth by 2100. The analysis took into account the exponential growth of the world population in later centuries, global welfare growth and technological advancements, including in healthcare. One amazing observation, for example: more than 70% of all humans ever born are currently alive. 

 

The report of the Club of Rome made a rallying call to the world: if no action is taken, the humankind will reach its population growth limits by the end of the first century of the second millennium, and a desperate need in food and energy will emerge to support livelihood of all.

 

In the 70s, the report received somewhat indirect support from the Soviet scientist Dr. Mikhail Budyko. In his works, Budyko argued that the human factor, i.e the anthropogenic impact on the environment and the enhanced greenhouse effect, play a key role in all of the abovementioned. We witness a rise in global temperatures which may potentially lead to 2℃ increase in the coming decades causing sea level rise, natural disasters and climate change with severe implications for environment and humans. 

 

In 2004, the Club of Rome issued a new edition of its original report under a new title “The Limits to Growth: The 30-Year Update”. The new report contained even more scary conclusions: the point of no return has already been passed under all possible scenarios, and if no adjustment is made there is no other way out than postponing the inevitable crisis, which will eventually cut the human population and lead to devastating natural disasters. Five out of twelve scenarios (including the baseline scenario) led to a peak of global population at around 10-12 billion people in 2100, and subsequent catastrophic fall in numbers reaching just 1-3 billion, with sharp decline in quality of life. 

 

In addition to a number of other scientific proofs, a recent study called “The Basics of the Physical Science” published in 2021 for the attention of the Conference of the Parties to the UNFCC in Glasgow (Scotland), comes to an undisputed conclusion, that it is the human activity which is “killing” the planet. And without a joint action to tackle climate change all global perspectives remain critical. 

 

To put it simply, and this is not a scary story for children, it has been proven by now that global population growth leads to an increase in industrial waste. The industrial gas creates a greenhouse effect which cause the rise in temperatures, and as a result, irretrievable disruption of our usual way of life.