Exclusive
Kazakhstan Plans to Increase Oil and Gas Production This Year
Oil production at the giant Tengiz field is planned at 34.8 mln tons in 2025, at the offshore Kashagan field—17.9 mln tons, and at the Karachaganak oil and gas condensate field—12.4 mln tons. These figures were presented by Kazakhstan’s Minister of Energy, Almasadam Satkaliyev, at the ministry’s extended board meeting dedicated to the results of 2024 and the tasks for the current year.
According to his forecast, oil production in 2025 is expected to increase to 96.2 mln tons, up from 87.7 mln tons the previous year. Oil exports are planned to rise to 70.5 mln tons, compared to 68.6 mln tons in 2024. Gas production is expected to reach 62.8 bln cubic meters, up from 59 bln cubic meters in 2024.
2024 Industry Results
By the end of last year, oil production amounted to 87.7 mln tons, or 97.1% of the planned target, oil refining reached 17.9 mln tons (100%), petroleum product output stood at 14.5 mln tons (102.1%), gas production totaled 59 bln cubic meters (97.5%). Liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) production reached 3 mln tons, which is 101.4% of the planned target, while petrochemical product output was 540 thousand tons, or 102.9% of the plan.
As of the beginning of the year, 321 contracts for hydrocarbon exploration and production are in effect in the subsoil use sector. Over the past three years (2022-2024), 52 contracts for subsoil use have been terminated. For breaches of contractual obligations, approximately 11.3 bln tenge has been recovered from subsoil users. In 2025, a review of contract performance will be conducted for 28 additional contracts.
Amendments to the Subsoil and Subsoil Use Code have been introduced to encourage investment in geological exploration and further development of mature (depleting) fields, allowing for up to 200 bln tenge in additional annual investment and increasing oil production at mature fields to 60 mln tons by 2045 (compared to 20.2 mln tons in 2023), as well as preserving jobs.
In Q2 of this year, further amendments to subsoil use legislation are planned. Specifically, they will introduce priority subsoil use rights for investors conducting geological exploration at their own expense. Additionally, a three-year restriction on the transfer of subsoil use rights or shares in newly concluded exploration contracts will be implemented.
In 2023-2024, eight improved model contracts were signed (Kalamkas-Khazar Operating, Karaton Operating, Urikhtau Operating, Sozak Oil & Gas, Kristall Management, QazaqGaz, QazaqGaz & Bozoi, KazakhTurkMunai), with a total investment volume of approximately $9.2 bln.
In 2024, 30 fields were transitioned from exploration to production, with recoverable reserves of 115.6 mln tons of oil and 25 bln cubic meters of gas. These fields will enter commercial development within the next three years.
Gas production has commenced at three fields (Rozhkovskoye, Yuzhny Aksai, Anabay), with recoverable gas reserves exceeding 31 bln cubic meters.
Following 2024 hydrocarbon subsoil use auctions, 14 subsoil blocks were awarded, generating 9.5 bln tenge in signature bonuses and $72.5 mln in minimum exploration investments. At least two more such auctions will be held this year.
By the end of 2024, the Kazakhstani content share in subsoil user procurement reached 61.9%, or 3.8 trln tenge (2023: 61% amounting to 4.1 trln tenge), including: 37.2% in goods, 79.5% in works, and 56.4% in services.
The Ministry identifies significant localization and Kazakh content development potential across 16 product groups, which account for 60% of all procurement by major subsoil users. Increasing the share of domestic engineering remains a key priority. Currently, Kazakhstan has several joint ventures involving both Kazakhstani and global engineering companies (Technip Energies, Worley, Fluor, Wood Group, ILF Consulting Engineers, Doris, and others), engaged in project design work.
2025 Plans
The Ministry has planned the following set of measures:
- Amendments to the Subsoil and Subsoil Use Code of the Republic of Kazakhstan aimed at improving the investment climate;
- Increasing the share of Kazakhstani content in subsoil user procurement to 62% through the localization of new production facilities;
- Localization of 10 new production facilities for goods most in demand in the oil and gas industry, attracting investments from global original equipment manufacturers.
Oil and Gas Industry
By the end of 2024, oil and gas condensate production amounted to 87.7 mln tons, compared to the planned 90.3 mln tons (actual performance reached 97.1% of the target).
Major overhauls caused the shortfall in production at large fields: at Tengiz, where maintenance was carried out in May and August in preparation for the planned launch of the Future Growth Project, resulting in a total downtime of 50 days, and at Kashagan, where a 28-day full shutdown was required for a slug catcher replacement.
Additionally, production declines were impacted by unscheduled shutdowns at Karachaganak, gas intake restrictions at the Orenburg Gas Processing Plant, and compliance with OPEC+ agreement obligations.
Last year, Karachaganak completed the commissioning of the 5th raw gas reinjection compressor.
In September 2024, Tengizchevroil completed the Wellhead Pressure Management Project.
The 2025 oil and gas condensate production target is 96.2 mln tons. The primary increase is expected from the Future Growth Project at Tengiz, scheduled for Q2 2025. Investments in 2025 are projected at approximately $598 mln.
At Karachaganak, work continues on the KEP-1B Expansion Project, involving the commissioning of the 6th raw gas reinjection compressor, which will maintain production at 11-12 mln tons per year. Investments in 2025 are estimated at around $140 mln.
Work is ongoing on the Kalamkas-Sea – Khazar Project. In 2025, completion of FEED design, tendering for EPC contracts (CPF and pipeline infrastructure), and a Final Investment Decision (FID) are planned. Peak oil production is expected to reach up to 4 mln tons. The total investment in the project is $6.6 bln.