Results of the Year
Era of Complex Deals: How Kazakhstan Can Attract Investment in the Energy Sector
Talgat Temirzhanov, Principal, Boston Consulting Group, Almaty
Konstantin Polunin, Partner and Director, Boston Consulting Group, Berlin
Talgat Temirzhanov
Konstantin Polunin
Kazakhstan is entering a phase in which the quality of investment decisions will determine the pace of development across the entire energy sector for the decade ahead, as well as the country's role within the global energy system.
According to BCG analysis, Kazakhstan will require an additional $94 billion in investments by 2029, and current conditions present a unique window of opportunity to attract this capital more effectively than in previous years — supporting sustainable economic growth and helping the country achieve its modernization objectives.
A substantial share of these investments will naturally be directed toward the broad energy sector - spanning oil and gas, power generation, and renewables.
The task is ambitious, but the external environment is favorable. With the global energy transition accelerating, competition for capital intensifying, and geopolitical shifts reshaping trade routes, countries in the region now can claim more investor attention than just a few years ago.
Kazakhstan - the largest economy in the Central Asia and Caspian (CCA) region with substantial natural resources - is well positioned to become a leader not only by securing investment, but also by shaping a new model for how these investments can deliver value.
Kazakhstan already dominates the regional landscape: it accounts for nearly 60% of CCA's combined GDP (about $260B) and about 75% of all foreign capital inflows over the past decade. Together with Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan forms the basis of the region's oil and gas exports: jointly the two countries produce roughly 4 mln barrels of oil per day, comparable with the output of the UAE or Brazil. In 2024, the region earned $47B from energy exports - about half of which came from Kazakhstan.
At the same time, Kazakhstan's economy is gradually becoming more balanced. Beyond the oil and gas sector - which in 2024 generated more than half of export revenues - manufacturing, agriculture, and metallurgy now play significant roles. The region's mineral base remains one of the strongest in Eurasia: CCA exports around $20B worth of mineral resources annually, with Kazakhstan contributing most of the copper, zinc, uranium, and rare earth elements.
An additional boost comes from changing global trade flows. As sanctions intensify, global trade shifts, and demand for reliable partners grows, states and corporations are re-evaluating supply chains and seeking diversification. In this environment, Kazakhstan gains additional weight: the country lies at the crossroads of several strategic corridors between Europe, China and the Middle East, and energy projects in Kazakhstan can become part of broader logistics and transit solutions.
Kazakhstan's demographic and human-capital structure also supports this trajectory: more than 50% of the working-age population has higher education, and 36% have completed technical or vocational training, distinguishing the country from many resource-based economies. For investors, this means access to a growing number of skilled workers, which is essential for complex energy projects.
For global players focused on the energy transition, this combination of resources, connectivity, and human capital creates a unique investment profile.
From “Klondike” to the "Era of complex deals"
A central element of BCG's research is a four-scenario model for the region's investment trajectory, based on two key forces: global demand for natural resources and trade barriers between regions.
1. “Klondike” - high demand, low barriers
A scenario where investors extract resources in their raw form, with minimal investment in domestic value creation, follows the logic that characterized earlier stages of development.
2. “Era of complex deals” - high demand, high barriers
Investments become more sophisticated: access to resources is granted to companies willing to take on additional commitments - from infrastructure development to processing, low-carbon technologies, local manufacturing, or digitalisation.
3. “Calm seas” - low demand, low barriers
Stagnation: resource potential remains underutilized and the economy does not receive stimulus.
4. “Resellers' heyday” - low demand, high barriers