Petrochemicals and Oil Refining
War in the Middle East and the Fuel Market of Kazakhstan and Central Asia
Bauyrzhan Zharmukhambetov, Director of Business Development, RV-Oil&Gas
Global energy is entering a period in which geopolitical events are once again the key drivers of prices, logistics, and strategic decisions. The escalation in the Middle East at the start of 2026, from attacks on oil and gas infrastructure to the unclear situation surrounding the partial or possibly complete closure of the Strait of Hormuz, has become one of the most serious challenges to the global supply system in the past decade.
For Kazakhstan and Central Asia, regions that are simultaneously producers, transit territories, and consumers of energy resources, these events have multi-layered consequences. They affect not only oil and petroleum product prices but also supply security, refining prospects, export routes, and even aviation logistics development.
The “Bottleneck” of the Strait of Hormuz and Its Impact on Central Asia
The Strait of Hormuz remains one of the most critical elements of the global energy architecture. About 20% of the world’s seaborne oil trade (20 mln barrels per day) and almost 30% of global LNG supplies (110 bln cubic metres per year) pass through it daily. This makes the strait not merely a transport corridor but a systemically important factor in global energy security.
The escalation of the conflict between Iran, the United States, and Israel at the start of 2026 led to a temporary restriction of tanker movement, a rise in insurance premiums, and a spike in Brent prices. Iran announced its intention to charge transit fees, while the United States issued temporary authorization for trade in Iranian oil to stabilise the market.
These steps showed just how sensitive the global market is to events in a region with effectively no alternative routes.
Asia, the largest consumer of Middle Eastern oil, proved especially vulnerable. China, India, Japan, and South Korea depend on Hormuz for 50-90% of their oil supplies. Any disruption to supply is instantly reflected in their domestic markets, prompting a search for alternative sources.
This is where Central Asia, with its own resource base and geographical proximity, becomes an additional stabilising factor.
Reorientation of Russian Flows: A New Risk for Central Asia
In parallel with the escalation in the Middle East, another important process is unfolding: a shift in Russia's export strategy. The partial lifting of sanctions is returning Russian oil to the global market, and the increased margins on the European route are causing Russian oil exports to Central Asia to decline.
Russia has traditionally been the key supplier of light petroleum products to Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Afghanistan. But under conditions of more profitable export alternatives, deliveries to the region are becoming irregular. An additional problem for the region has been the Russian government's temporary ban on petrol exports, introduced from April 1, 2026. The result emerged quickly:
- in Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan, prices for imported fuel consignments rose by 15-25%;
- in Tajikistan and Afghanistan, by 20-30%;
- logistics chains became overloaded and delivery times lengthened.
For countries where a significant share of consumption depends on imports, this creates risks of shortages, inflation, and social tension.