Green Energy and Sustainable Development
Towards carbon neutrality
The fight against climate change is changing the global economic agenda. There is a steady trend of decarbonization of large economies of the world. The number of countries that have declared carbon neutrality goals grows every year. By 2050, more than 120 countries have declared their intention to achieve this goal.
Large financial institutions have completely abandoned coal-related projects in favor of green technologies. The World Bank, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, and the Asian Development Bank are among them. Economic pressure on the coal industry is increasing. According to CarbonTracker research, since 2015, the number of coal-fired power plants under construction has decreased by 84% worldwide.
Starting in 2023, the European Union plans to introduce Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM). This will radically change the rules of international trade.
According to Global Carbon Atlas data for 2019, Kazakhstan ranks 21st in terms of carbon dioxide emissions among 221 countries, 11th in terms of per capita emissions, and 5th in terms of the carbon intensity of GDP. National greenhouse gas emissions in 2019 amounted to more than 364 million tons.
As previously stated, within the framework of the Paris Agreement, Kazakhstan has committed itself to reduce emissions by 2030 by 15% from the 1990 level and with international support by 25%. However, today, emissions have already exceeded the 1990 level. According to forecasts, total emissions will continue to grow and will reach a level of more than 473 mln tons in 2060 unless drastic measures are taken.
Currently, the Ministry of Ecology, Geology and Natural Resources of Kazakhstan, with the support of the German Society for International Cooperation (GIZ), has prepared a draft Doctrine for Achieving Carbon Neutrality of the Republic of Kazakhstan by 2060. The Doctrine was developed based on modeling the real economy using the best advanced models, such as TIMES, CGE, and System Dynamics. This made it possible to determine the most optimal way to decarbonize the economy of Kazakhstan in terms of the lowest investment costs and obtaining the greatest economic effect.
Two scenarios were developed – basic and carbon neutrality. The basic scenario is a path with no measures to decarbonize the economy. According to calculations, this will not allow achieving the projected economic growth indicators due to the influence of three external factors. The first is the introduction of a border carbon tax, both by the European Union and other major trading partners of the Republic of Kazakhstan. The expected decline in energy prices projected by the International Energy Agency and the impact of climate change on agriculture will also have a negative effect.
The carbon neutrality scenario considers active efforts to decarbonize and achieve carbon neutrality by 2060. According to our calculations, this will reduce the expected damage from the mentioned risks by more than two times. At the same time, the simulation results showed that by 2060 Kazakhstan would achieve a balance of zero emissions across the entire economy. Most of the emissions will be avoided, and the remaining ones will either be captured, stored and used directly at the source or absorbed by vegetation and soil. In total, according to calculations, 9.335 bln tons of CO2 will not enter the atmosphere.